https://airveto.com Wind analysis, incident reconstructions, and explainers covering the EU's eastern frontier — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine. en Thu, 02 Jul 2026 18:26:51 GMT https://airveto.com/blog/magura-v5-indopacific-2026 https://airveto.com/blog/magura-v5-indopacific-2026 Uforce's Magura sank a decommissioned ship in the Philippines for U.S. Special Forces. The same system downed two Russian Su-30s and two Mi-8 helicopters over the Black Sea. Sun, 28 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Ukraine Magura Black Sea Philippines Indo-Pacific naval drone USV https://airveto.com/blog/lithuania-patria-6x6-mou-2026 https://airveto.com/blog/lithuania-patria-6x6-mou-2026 Lithuania's State Defence Council announced procurement of 936 Patria 6x6s in May 2026. The MoU with KOVO Armor puts local production on the table. Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Lithuania Patria 6x6 CAVS KOVO Armor defence industry eastern border https://airveto.com/incidents/puvociai-balloon-2026-06-23 https://airveto.com/incidents/puvociai-balloon-2026-06-23 Vilnius University geography students discovered a contraband balloon payload at the Puvočiai field base in Varėna district during field practice in June 2026. Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Varėna district southern Lithuania Belarus balloons Lithuania Puvočiai https://airveto.com/incidents/kaliningrad-intercept-2026-06-20 https://airveto.com/incidents/kaliningrad-intercept-2026-06-20 On 20 June 2026, NATO fighters identified and escorted an AN-30 and Su-24MR reconnaissance pair with Su-35 escort flying from Kaliningrad to mainland Russia, all with transponders off and no flight plan. Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania NATO Baltic Air Policing AN-30 Su-24MR Su-35 Russia Baltic Sea military identification https://airveto.com/blog/latvia-drone-criminal-law-2026-06-19 https://airveto.com/blog/latvia-drone-criminal-law-2026-06-19 Latvia's Saeima passed Criminal Law amendments on 18 June making airborne devices an aggravating circumstance in smuggling offences. What it covers and why it took this long. Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Latvia legislation Saeima drones balloon smuggling Criminal Law Belarus https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-trophylab-2026-06-19 https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-trophylab-2026-06-19 Ukraine's Ministry of Defence launched TrophyLab on 19 June — a platform giving verified partners access to technical documentation on captured Russian weapons, including the drones AirVeto covers. Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Ukraine TrophyLab Russian drones captured equipment Orlan Shahed open source intelligence https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-strikes-moscow-2026-06-18 https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-strikes-moscow-2026-06-18 On 18 June, Ukrainian drones struck Moscow's Kapotnya refinery for the second time in a week. The largest drone raid on the Russian capital since the full-scale war began. Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Moscow Ukraine Kapotnya drone strike Russia oil refinery Baltic security https://airveto.com/blog/baltic-air-policing-2026-06-16 https://airveto.com/blog/baltic-air-policing-2026-06-16 How NATO's Baltic Air Policing works: the two bases, the rotation, and what it took to go from scramble to shoot-down in May and June 2026. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog NATO Baltic Air Policing Šiauliai Ämari Rafale F-16 Baltic security shoot-down https://airveto.com/blog/ew-jamming-drone-diversion-2026-06-15 https://airveto.com/blog/ew-jamming-drone-diversion-2026-06-15 How Russian EW diverts Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace. Kouvola (March 2026) and Nautrēni (June 2026) as worked examples, with AirVeto wind layer context. Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog electronic warfare GPS jamming Ukraine Russia NATO Baltic security Kouvola Nautrēni drone diversion https://airveto.com/blog/gallant-boar-2026-suwalki-corridor https://airveto.com/blog/gallant-boar-2026-suwalki-corridor Lithuania, Poland, and France run joint drills in the Suwałki Corridor June 16–26. What the exercise covers, why the corridor still defines Baltic defence planning, and what the wind looks like over it this week. Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Suwałki Gap NATO Lithuania Poland exercises Gallant Boar https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-air-alert-2026-06-13 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-air-alert-2026-06-13 Lithuania issued a yellow-level air alert for Vilnius district on 13 June 2026, activating NATO air policing fighters before the object was identified as a meteorological balloon from Belarus. Alert lifted after 23 minutes. Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Vilnius balloon meteorological balloon Belarus NATO Baltic Air Policing airspace alert Baltic security https://airveto.com/blog/delta-palantir-sitaware-2026-06-11 https://airveto.com/blog/delta-palantir-sitaware-2026-06-11 Side-by-side comparison of the three battlefield management systems used by Ukraine, the US, and Lithuania, with where AirVeto's public wind layer fits. Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog delta palantir sitaware battlefield-management comparison https://airveto.com/blog/lithuania-storm-june-11-2026 https://airveto.com/blog/lithuania-storm-june-11-2026 Lithuania's hydrometeorological service issued an orange warning for Vilnius, Utena, and Panevėžys counties on June 11, 2026. Wind gusts of 25 m/s are sweeping the exact border zones AirVeto monitors. Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog wind lithuania suwalki-gap weather https://airveto.com/blog/f35-poland-flyover-2026-06-12 https://airveto.com/blog/f35-poland-flyover-2026-06-12 Poland's first F-35A Husarz jets overfly Kraków, Warsaw, and Gdańsk on 12 June 2026. The program, the pilots, and what it means for NATO's eastern flank. Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog f-35 poland nato military https://airveto.com/incidents/nautreni-drone-2026-06-08 https://airveto.com/incidents/nautreni-drone-2026-06-08 On 8 June 2026, NATO jets shot down a foreign drone over Nautrēni Parish, Rēzekne Municipality — the first confirmed aerial intercept of a drone entering Latvian airspace from abroad. Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Rēzekne Nautrēni drone NATO French jets Rafale B Baltic Air Policing Šiauliai shoot-down Russian EW electromagnetic warfare Latgale https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-06-08 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-06-08 Belarusian balloon markers closed Vilnius Airport from 01:18 to 04:00 EEST on 8 June 2026, disrupting five flights and 453 passengers; four aircraft were diverted, including two to Kaunas. Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Vilnius Vilnius airport airport closure Belarus balloons balloon smuggling hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security Oro navigacija https://airveto.com/incidents/constanta-port-drone-2026-06-05 https://airveto.com/incidents/constanta-port-drone-2026-06-05 A Ukrainian Magura V5 unmanned surface vessel self-detonated at pier 77–78 in Romania's Port of Constanta on 5 June 2026 after Russian electronic warfare jamming caused it to lose navigation control during a Black Sea operation. Romania evacuated over 1,300 people from nearby beaches; no injuries were reported. Three other Ukrainian sea drones lost on the same day detonated offshore or at sea. Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Constanta Black Sea Magura V5 Ukrainian maritime drone sea drone naval drone Russian electronic warfare EW jamming NATO port explosion https://airveto.com/incidents/estonia-latvia-drone-alert-2026-06-03 https://airveto.com/incidents/estonia-latvia-drone-alert-2026-06-03 Overnight drone alerts across six Estonian counties and Latvia's Alūksne municipality on the night of 2–3 June 2026 — NATO air policing scrambled; no drone was confirmed destroyed. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident EE Estonia Latvia drone NATO Baltic Air Policing airspace alert Võru Alūksne Baltic security Ust-Luga Primorsk https://airveto.com/incidents/galati-drone-2026-05-29 https://airveto.com/incidents/galati-drone-2026-05-29 A Russian Geran-2 drone hit a 10-storey apartment block on Bulevardul Brăilei in Galați at 00:00 UTC on 29 May 2026, injuring two residents — the first Russian drone strike to injure civilians on NATO territory. Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Galați drone Geran-2 Shahed NATO airspace incursion Danube NATO territory https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-hornet-balloon-drone https://airveto.com/blog/ukraine-hornet-balloon-drone Ukraine is releasing Hornet AI strike drones from aerostats at 8,000 m to double effective range. The wind at that altitude sets the release window. Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Ukraine Drone Wind analysis Aerostat https://airveto.com/incidents/dridza-lake-drone-2026-05-23 https://airveto.com/incidents/dridza-lake-drone-2026-05-23 An unidentified drone crashed into Dridža Lake in Krāslava Municipality, Latvia, on 23 May 2026 and exploded on impact; no injuries were reported, and no detection alert was issued beforehand. Sat, 23 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Krāslava Latgale drone airspace incursion Baltic security detection failure https://airveto.com/incidents/utena-drones-2026-05-21 https://airveto.com/incidents/utena-drones-2026-05-21 Lithuania's second air-danger alert in two days — radar tracked two unidentified objects toward Utena on 21 May 2026; NATO fighters were scrambled but both signatures were lost and nothing was recovered. Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Utena drone NATO Baltic Air Policing airspace alert Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-latgale-drone-threat-2026-05-21 https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-latgale-drone-threat-2026-05-21 A drone air-threat alert covered Krāslava, Rēzekne, Ludza, and Augšdaugava on 21 May 2026; a drone was detected but not recovered, two days after the five-county shelter of 19 May. Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Latgale Krāslava Rēzekne Ludza Augšdaugava drone alert Belarus drone Drīdža Lake hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/blog/how-not-to-report-important-data https://airveto.com/blog/how-not-to-report-important-data A Lithuanian air-danger alert on 20 May 2026 shut an airport and emptied platforms while telling residents next to nothing. Three things it got wrong. Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Risk communication Data communication https://airveto.com/incidents/ignalina-drone-alert-2026-05-20 https://airveto.com/incidents/ignalina-drone-alert-2026-05-20 An unidentified radar mark from Belarus triggered Lithuania's air-danger alert on 20 May 2026, closing Vilnius Airport and moving officials to shelter; lifted at 10:58 with no impact confirmed. Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Vilnius Vilnius Airport Ignalina drone NATO Baltic Air Policing airspace alert Belarus border Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-eastern-drone-alert-2026-05-19 https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-eastern-drone-alert-2026-05-19 A drone entering from the direction of Russia triggered shelter-in-place orders across Latgale and Vidzeme on 19 May 2026, suspending train services; the drone was assessed as likely Ukrainian, diverted by Russian EW. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Latgale Ludza Rēzekne Krāslava Augšdaugava Daugavpils Belarus drone drone alert hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-estonia-drone-shootdown-2026-05-19 https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-estonia-drone-shootdown-2026-05-19 On 19 May 2026, a Romanian NATO F-16 from the Baltic Air Policing detachment shot down an intruding drone near Kablaküla, Estonia — the first NATO fighter intercept of a drone over Baltic airspace. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident EE Estonia Latvia drone NATO F-16 Baltic Air Policing shoot-down Lake Võrtsjärv Kablaküla airspace incursion Baltic security Romanian Air Force https://airveto.com/incidents/trakai-balloons-2026-05-19 https://airveto.com/incidents/trakai-balloons-2026-05-19 Two smuggling balloons carrying contraband cigarettes came down near a lake in Trakai district before dawn on 19 May 2026, a few houses from Seimas member Edita Rudelienė's home. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Trakai Belarus balloons Lithuania contraband cigarettes smuggling balloon Vilnius region deep inland recovery https://airveto.com/incidents/utena-samane-drone-2026-05-17 https://airveto.com/incidents/utena-samane-drone-2026-05-17 A destroyed drone was found near Samanė village, Utena district, on 17 May 2026; Lithuanian radars had not detected it in flight, and preliminary markings suggested Ukrainian origin. Sun, 17 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Utena Samanė drone Ukrainian drone NKVC Plan Skydas airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/helsinki-vantaa-airport-drone-2026-05-15 https://airveto.com/incidents/helsinki-vantaa-airport-drone-2026-05-15 A drone alert closed Helsinki-Vantaa airport 04:00–07:19 EEST on 15 May 2026, triggering shelter-in-place for 1.8 million people; flights diverted to Stockholm Arlanda and Rovaniemi. No drone crossing into Finnish airspace was confirmed. Fri, 15 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident FI Finland Helsinki-Vantaa HEL airport closure drone alert Ukrainian drone shelter-in-place Uusimaa Russian electronic warfare Baltic security airspace incursion https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-05-13 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-05-13 A Belarusian smuggling balloon closed Vilnius airport 02:16–03:16 EEST on 13 May 2026, affecting 128 passengers; one flight diverted to Copenhagen. LRT confirmed this as the ninth disruption of 2026. Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Vilnius Vilnius airport airport closure Belarus balloons balloon smuggling hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/kaunas-sanciai-balloon-2026-05-13 https://airveto.com/incidents/kaunas-sanciai-balloon-2026-05-13 A balloon carrying ~9,000 cigarette packs landed in Šančiai, Kaunas, on 13 May 2026; the ICON wind field shows sustained southerly flow from the Hrodna (Grodno) oblast of Belarus. Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Kaunas Šančiai Belarus balloons Lithuania contraband cigarettes Hrodna oblast deep inland recovery https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-rezekne-vilani-drones-2026-05-07 https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-rezekne-vilani-drones-2026-05-07 Two drones struck the Rēzekne oil-storage facility in Latvia on 7 May 2026, damaging four fuel tanks and triggering the resignations of the defence minister and prime minister. Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Rēzekne Viļāni Latgale drone Ukrainian drone An-196 Lutyi airspace incursion NATO Baltic Air Policing Baltic security government crisis https://airveto.com/incidents/galati-bariera-traian-drone-2026-04-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/galati-bariera-traian-drone-2026-04-25 A Russian Geran-2 drone flew approximately 15 km over Romanian territory and crashed in the Bariera Traian district of northern Galați on 25 April 2026, damaging a farm outbuilding and an electricity pole but injuring no one. This is a distinct event from the 29 May 2026 Galați strike, in which a Geran-2 hit a 10-storey apartment block and injured two civilians. Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Galați Bariera Traian drone Geran-2 Shahed NATO Eurofighter Typhoon airspace incursion Danube https://airveto.com/blog/three-months-of-cross-border-inflow https://airveto.com/blog/three-months-of-cross-border-inflow Five months of incident reconstructions along the EU's eastern frontier reveal three patterns that country-level weather services can't show. Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Incident archive Belarus balloons Wind analysis https://airveto.com/blog/reading-the-suwalki-gap https://airveto.com/blog/reading-the-suwalki-gap The Suwałki Gap is 65 km wide, flanked by Belarus and Kaliningrad. What its wind field looks like and which altitude layer predicts most incidents. Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (daniel-kovac) Blog Suwałki Gap Wind analysis https://airveto.com/incidents/iitti-drone-2026-04-11 https://airveto.com/incidents/iitti-drone-2026-04-11 A Ukrainian drone with an unexploded warhead crashed in Perheniemi forest, Iitti, Kymenlaakso on 11 April 2026; Finnish EOD detonated the warhead at approximately 20:00 EEST. Finland's NBI opened two simultaneous criminal investigations. Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident FI Finland Iitti Kymenlaakso Perheniemi Ukrainian drone Chaika drone unexploded warhead NBI investigation Russian electronic warfare GPS jamming airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-04-09 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-04-09 Vilnius Airport (EYVI) was closed for almost seven hours on 9–10 April 2026 after suspected smuggling balloons entered approach airspace from the Belarusian direction. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons airspace closure Lithuania https://airveto.com/incidents/parikkala-lake-drone-2026-03-31 https://airveto.com/incidents/parikkala-lake-drone-2026-03-31 A Ukrainian Chaika drone with an unexploded warhead crashed on frozen Lake Pyhäjärvi near Parikkala on 31 March 2026, 2 km from the Russian border; the warhead was destroyed in a controlled detonation. Tue, 31 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident FI Finland Parikkala Kitee South Karelia Lake Pyhäjärvi Ukrainian drone Chaika drone unexploded warhead Russian electronic warfare GPS jamming airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/estonia-drone-alert-2026-03-31 https://airveto.com/incidents/estonia-drone-alert-2026-03-31 Estonian authorities issued EE-ALARM alerts across seven counties overnight on 30–31 March 2026 after the Estonian Defence Forces reported potential drone sightings over eastern and southern Estonia. A Finnair Helsinki-Tartu flight turned back over central Estonia; the alert was declared over by 06:00 local time on 31 March. Tue, 31 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident EE Estonia Ida-Viru Lääne-Viru Jõgeva Põlva Tartu Valga Võru drone EE-ALARM Finnair Estonian Defence Forces electronic warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/kouvola-drone-crash-2026-03-29 https://airveto.com/incidents/kouvola-drone-crash-2026-03-29 Two Ukrainian drones crashed in southeastern Finland on the morning of 29 March 2026 — one north of Kouvola carrying an unexploded warhead, one near Luumäki. Finnish authorities destroyed the warhead in a controlled detonation that evening. Finland's NBI later confirmed the drones were Chaika decoys, not AN-196s as initially reported. Russian electronic warfare jamming from the Leningrad region diverted them from a Ukrainian attack on the Ust-Luga oil terminal. Sun, 29 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident FI Finland Kouvola Kymenlaakso Luumäki Chaika drone AN-196 Ukrainian drone Ust-Luga Russian electronic warfare GPS jamming Baltic security airspace incursion https://airveto.com/incidents/parches-tulcea-drone-2026-03-26 https://airveto.com/incidents/parches-tulcea-drone-2026-03-26 A Russian Geran/Shahed attack drone crashed approximately 2 km from the village of Parcheș in northern Tulcea County at 00:44 local time (22:44 UTC) on 26 March 2026, after penetrating roughly 4 km into Romanian territory. No casualties or infrastructure damage were recorded. Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Tulcea Parcheș drone Geran Shahed airspace incursion NATO Danube MApN https://airveto.com/incidents/auvere-power-station-drone-2026-03-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/auvere-power-station-drone-2026-03-25 A Ukrainian military drone entered Estonia from Russia and struck the chimney of the Auvere power station in Ida-Viru County in the early hours of 25 March 2026. Energy transmission was unaffected and no one was hurt; prosecutors confirmed the drone was not aimed at Estonia. Wed, 25 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident EE Estonia Auvere Ida-Viru Narva drone Ukrainian drone Enefit Power Ust-Luga electronic warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/kraslava-dobrocina-drone-2026-03-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/kraslava-dobrocina-drone-2026-03-25 A Ukrainian military drone crossed into Latvia from Russia and detonated near Dobročina village in the Krāslava municipality in the early hours of 25 March 2026. Latvian radar and acoustic sensors tracked it; the Air Force confirmed Ukrainian origin from the wreckage. Wed, 25 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Krāslava Dobročina drone Ukrainian drone Latgale Primorsk Ust-Luga electronic warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/varena-lavysas-drone-2026-03-23 https://airveto.com/incidents/varena-lavysas-drone-2026-03-23 A Ukrainian military drone crashed and exploded near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania's Varėna district in the early hours of 23 March 2026. Military radar did not detect it; the Prime Minister later confirmed Ukrainian origin and attributed the deviation to Russian electronic warfare. Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Varėna Lake Lavysas drone Ukrainian drone Plan Skydas Primorsk electronic warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-03-22 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-03-22 Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations on the night of 22–23 March 2026 after radar detected contraband balloon signatures from the Belarusian direction. This was the fourth balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026 and came the night before a Ukrainian stray drone crashed near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania's Varėna district. Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons airspace closure Lithuania contraband cigarettes hybrid threat Varėna https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-03-15 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-03-15 Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations for approximately 110 minutes overnight on 15–16 March 2026 after radar detected navigational markers consistent with contraband weather balloons entering approach airspace from the Belarusian direction. This was the third balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026. Sun, 15 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons airspace closure Lithuania contraband cigarettes hybrid threat radar detection https://airveto.com/incidents/galczyce-gerbera-mine-2026-03-12 https://airveto.com/incidents/galczyce-gerbera-mine-2026-03-12 On 12 March 2026, a lignite mine employee at Gałczyce, Konin County, reported a drone wreck on the mine grounds. Police from Konin and Poznań confirmed a Russian Gerbera decoy — assessed as having entered Poland six months earlier during the 9–10 September 2025 mass drone incursion and gone undetected until the find. Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Gałczyce Konin County Greater Poland Voivodeship Gerbera Russian drone drone find September 2025 March 2026 mine wreckage recovery https://airveto.com/incidents/sfantu-gheorghe-tulcea-drone-2026-02-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/sfantu-gheorghe-tulcea-drone-2026-02-25 A Russian Shahed/Geran-type attack drone entered Romanian airspace near Sfântu Gheorghe in the Danube Delta on the evening of 25 February 2026, crossed northern Tulcea County, and exited over Black Sea territorial waters near Sulina without dropping debris on land. Two Romanian F-16s scrambled from Fetești Air Base; no injuries or infrastructure damage were recorded. Wed, 25 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Tulcea Sfântu Gheorghe Danube Delta drone Geran Shahed airspace incursion NATO Black Sea https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-02-17 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-02-17 Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations for approximately 75 minutes on the evening of 17 February 2026 after the Lithuanian Crisis Management Centre notified the airport of weather balloons posing a risk to aviation from the Belarusian direction. Finnair cancelled its evening services to Vilnius during the restriction window. This was the second documented balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026. Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons airspace closure Lithuania Finnair contraband cigarettes hybrid threat https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-02-10 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-02-10 A Belarusian smuggling balloon closed Vilnius airport in early 2026, affecting ~700 passengers; three flights diverted to Riga, two to Kaunas. Exact date uncertain — likely late January 2026. Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Lithuania Vilnius Vilnius airport airport closure Belarus balloons balloon smuggling hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/druskininkai-seven-balloons-2026-02-06 https://airveto.com/incidents/druskininkai-seven-balloons-2026-02-06 Seven balloons were intercepted and two individuals arrested in the Druskininkai area on 6 February 2026 — a daily record for Lithuania in 2026. Sat, 07 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Druskininkai southern Lithuania Belarus balloons Lithuania VSAT https://airveto.com/incidents/sventoji-coast-twin-balloon-2026-01-31 https://airveto.com/incidents/sventoji-coast-twin-balloon-2026-01-31 A twin-envelope balloon crossed Lithuania east to west at 1–3 km altitude on 31 January 2026, arriving over Šventoji on the Baltic coast at around 09:00 local time. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Šventoji Baltic coast Belarus balloons Lithuania https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloons-2026-01-28 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloons-2026-01-28 Eight balloons entered Lithuanian airspace near Vilnius Airport at 03:00 UTC on 28 January 2026; four suspects were arrested. AirVeto's 7 km wind log shows ~71 km/h southerly flow from Belarus. Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons Lithuania prediction match https://airveto.com/incidents/przasnysz-ew-base-drone-2026-01-28 https://airveto.com/incidents/przasnysz-ew-base-drone-2026-01-28 An unknown drone crashed approximately 70 metres from Poland's 2nd Radio-Electronic Centre at Przasnysz on 28 January 2026; no intercept means were deployed at the time. Military police opened an investigation; origin undetermined. Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Przasnysz Masovia 2nd Radio-Electronic Centre SIGINT electronic warfare Suwałki Gap drone crash military installation hybrid warfare Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/podlaskie-belarus-balloons-2026-01 https://airveto.com/incidents/podlaskie-belarus-balloons-2026-01 Polish military radar detected Belarusian smuggling balloons crossing into Podlaskie on the night of 21 January 2026; Poland summoned the Belarusian chargé d'affaires on 22 January. Three consecutive nights of crossings on 31 January–2 February triggered emergency NOTAMs; five smugglers were arrested on 5 February 2026. Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Podlaskie Sokółka Białystok Belarus balloons Poland smuggling balloons hybrid warfare airspace incursion Belarus EP R130 https://airveto.com/incidents/tanasoaia-drone-2026-01-18 https://airveto.com/incidents/tanasoaia-drone-2026-01-18 Drone fragments were found in Tănăsoaia, Vrancea County on 18 January 2026 — the first confirmed drone find in Vrancea, adding a new county to Romania's airspace-violation record. Sun, 18 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Tănăsoaia Vrancea drone fragments Russian drone inland penetration airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/poland-recon-aircraft-intercept-2025-12-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/poland-recon-aircraft-intercept-2025-12-25 Polish jets intercepted a Russian IL-20M ELINT aircraft over the Baltic on 25 December 2025 while Belarusian balloons simultaneously crossed Podlaskie — analysts characterised the two events as a coordinated hybrid probe of NATO's eastern-flank defences. Thu, 25 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Podlaskie Belarus balloons IL-20M Russian reconnaissance Baltic Sea hybrid probe UNSC NSB hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/bialystok-podlaskie-balloons-2025-12-24 https://airveto.com/incidents/bialystok-podlaskie-balloons-2025-12-24 On 24 December 2025, AirVeto's model flagged a Belarus→Poland crossing corridor; Polish authorities overnight recovered four smuggling balloons — the first documented AirVeto prediction match. Thu, 25 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Białystok Podlaskie Belarus balloons Poland prediction match https://airveto.com/incidents/puiesti-drone-crash-2025-11-25 https://airveto.com/incidents/puiesti-drone-crash-2025-11-25 A Gerbera-type Russian drone crashed 100+ km inland near Puiești, Vaslui County on 25 November 2025, found by a resident behind their house; no warhead, first confirmed daylight breach in Romania. Tue, 25 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Puiești Vaslui Gerbera drone Russian drone NATO penetration daylight incursion deepest penetration airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-balloon-smuggling-2025-11-24 https://airveto.com/incidents/latvia-balloon-smuggling-2025-11-24 NBS radar tracked seven to eight Belarusian smuggling balloons crossing into Latgale on the night of 23–24 November 2025 — Latvia's first documented balloon-smuggling event, carrying more than 720,000 cigarettes. Mon, 24 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LV Latvia Latgale Belarus balloons balloon smuggling NBS National Border Guard cigarette smuggling hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/tulcea-galati-drone-2025-11-19 https://airveto.com/incidents/tulcea-galati-drone-2025-11-19 A drone penetrated 8 km into Romanian NATO airspace near Tulcea-Galați on 19 November 2025; two Romanian F-16s and two German Eurofighters were scrambled. Origin uncertain, no wreckage recovered. Wed, 19 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Tulcea Galați Danube drone penetration Russian drone F-16 Eurofighter NATO airspace airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/grindu-drone-crash-2025-11-10 https://airveto.com/incidents/grindu-drone-crash-2025-11-10 A drone crashed near Grindu, Tulcea County on 10 November 2025; weather grounded Romanian F-16s and the jets were not scrambled. RO-Alert issued at 00:07, debris confirmed at the site. Mon, 10 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Grindu Tulcea Dobrogea drone crash Russian drone RO-Alert F-16 weather airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/warsaw-belweder-drone-2025-09-15 https://airveto.com/incidents/warsaw-belweder-drone-2025-09-15 A drone was neutralised over the Belweder Palace district in Warsaw at 17:00 UTC on 15 September 2025; a Belarusian woman and a Ukrainian man were detained and charged under the Aviation Act. ABW found no foreign intelligence link. Mon, 15 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Warsaw Belweder drone interception Belarusian nationals special operations hybrid warfare airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/chilia-veche-drone-loiter-2025-09-13 https://airveto.com/incidents/chilia-veche-drone-loiter-2025-09-13 A Russian drone entered Romanian NATO airspace near Chilia Veche on 13 September 2025, loitered for 50 minutes, and returned to Ukraine; four NATO jets were scrambled but the drone was not intercepted. Sat, 13 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident RO Romania Chilia Veche Tulcea Danube Delta Russian drone NATO airspace F-16 Eurofighter Zelenskyy airspace loiter airspace incursion Baltic security https://airveto.com/incidents/wyryki-wola-missile-2025-09-09 https://airveto.com/incidents/wyryki-wola-missile-2025-09-09 During Russia's 9–10 September 2025 mass drone incursion into Poland — 19–23 decoy drones, the first NATO shots since the full-scale invasion began — a Polish F-16's AIM-120 AMRAAM suffered a guidance failure and struck a residential building in Wyryki-Wola, Włodawa County. The 150 kg missile did not detonate. It was the first time in the war that a NATO air-defence missile caused structural damage inside a NATO state. Tue, 09 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Wyryki-Wola Włodawa County Lublin Voivodeship AIM-120 AMRAAM F-16 NATO drone incursion Gerbera Operation Eastern Sentry September 2025 Russia Article 4 https://airveto.com/incidents/majdan-selce-gerbera-2025-09-06 https://airveto.com/incidents/majdan-selce-gerbera-2025-09-06 A Russian Gerbera decoy drone was found in a field near Majdan Sielec, Tomaszów Lubelski County, on 6 September 2025 — roughly 50 km from the Ukrainian border. Pre-flight markings dated 2 September and the Cyrillic label 'БГ' (combat-ready) confirmed Russian origin. Polish officials initially claimed it had 'no military characteristics'; TVN24 photographs proved otherwise. Sat, 06 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Majdan Sielec Tomaszów Lubelski County Lublin Voivodeship Gerbera Russian drone drone crash September 2025 decoy drone Ukraine border https://airveto.com/incidents/osiny-shahed-crash-2025-08-20 https://airveto.com/incidents/osiny-shahed-crash-2025-08-20 A Russian Shahed drone with a Chinese MD550 engine crashed at approximately 02:00 CEST on 20 August 2025 in Osiny, Łuków County; the drone flew over Polish territory for 2.5 hours undetected before crashing. Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Poland Osiny Łuków Lublin Shahed MD550 Chinese engine airspace incursion hybrid warfare Baltic security