https://airveto.com Wind analysis, incident reconstructions, and explainers covering the EU's eastern frontier — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine. en Sat, 25 Apr 2026 19:57:21 GMT https://airveto.com/blog/three-months-of-cross-border-inflow https://airveto.com/blog/three-months-of-cross-border-inflow From the Christmas Eve 2025 Białystok prediction match to the 9–10 April 2026 Vilnius closure — patterns that emerge when you reconstruct individual airspace incidents from observed wind data. Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Blog Incident archive Belarus balloons Wind analysis https://airveto.com/blog/reading-the-suwalki-gap https://airveto.com/blog/reading-the-suwalki-gap The 65-kilometre corridor between Poland and Lithuania sits between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Here's how to interpret the wind field there, and what it does and doesn't tell you about cross-border air movement. Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Blog Suwałki Gap Wind analysis https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-04-09 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloon-closure-2026-04-09 Vilnius International Airport (EYVI) suspended operations from 22:30 UTC on 9 April to 03:30 UTC on 10 April 2026 after objects consistent with smuggling balloons were detected in the approach airspace. Reconstruction of the wind field at the relevant altitudes across the Lithuanian-Belarusian border. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons airspace closure Lithuania https://airveto.com/incidents/druskininkai-seven-balloons-2026-02-06 https://airveto.com/incidents/druskininkai-seven-balloons-2026-02-06 Seven balloons were intercepted and two individuals arrested in the Druskininkai area of southern Lithuania on Friday 6 February 2026, according to BNS and LRT. Reconstruction of the wind field along the Lithuanian-Belarusian border during the event window. Sat, 07 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Druskininkai southern Lithuania Belarus balloons Lithuania VSAT https://airveto.com/incidents/sventoji-coast-twin-balloon-2026-01-31 https://airveto.com/incidents/sventoji-coast-twin-balloon-2026-01-31 A twin-envelope balloon contraption crossed Lithuania from east to west at roughly 1–3 km altitude and ~30 km/h ground speed, arriving over the Šventoji coast around 9:00 local on 31 January 2026. Reconstruction of the wind field at low-to-mid altitudes. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Šventoji Baltic coast Belarus balloons Lithuania https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloons-2026-01-28 https://airveto.com/incidents/vilnius-airport-balloons-2026-01-28 Overnight on 28 January 2026, at 03:00 UTC, eight balloons crossed into Lithuanian airspace near Vilnius Airport and four suspects were arrested. AirVeto's wind log at 7 km over Lithuania recorded 55 km/h from the south — a drift envelope directly favoring inflow from Belarus toward EU airspace. Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident LT Vilnius Airport Belarus balloons Lithuania prediction match https://airveto.com/incidents/bialystok-podlaskie-balloons-2025-12-24 https://airveto.com/incidents/bialystok-podlaskie-balloons-2025-12-24 AirVeto's wind model flagged a crossing corridor from Belarus into Poland through the Podlaskie region on 24 December 2025; overnight Polish authorities recovered four objects identified as smuggling balloons. First publicly documented AirVeto prediction match. Thu, 25 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT noreply@airveto.com (AirVeto) Incident PL Białystok Podlaskie Belarus balloons Poland prediction match