Poland runs a police-led special operation on the Kaliningrad border

Poland's police chief, Gen. Marek Boron, said on November 2, 2026 that police, the army, the Border Guard and special services are running a special operation on the Kaliningrad border, RMF FM reported. It was the first public statement to place the operation there, four days after the October 29 readiness letter that preceded it.

Police are running a special operation in two voivodeships on the Kaliningrad border

A staff for the operation sits at national police headquarters in Warsaw, and the provincial police commands in Olsztyn and Bialystok take part, RMF24 and Rzeczpospolita reported. The operation covers the Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie voivodeships, according to TVN24.

Boron said reinforcements arrived from the police commands of other voivodeships. Counter-terrorism units are working with the army, the Border Guard and the special services. Police call the operation preventive and secret, and the national police communications office told TVN24 it can give no detail beyond what Boron said.

Military intelligence and allied services warned of possible sabotage last week

Authorities received a warning last week from Poland's Military Intelligence Service (SWW) and from allied services, RMF FM reported. The warning said sabotage could happen on the border with Russia. It named armed groups crossing the border as one possibility.

Boron tied the operation to what he called acts of sabotage, the hybridisation of crime and the work of eastern services in Poland. AirVeto's earlier brief covers the September 23 Starlink station fire in Poland.

Police named the Kaliningrad border four days after the readiness letter

A letter dated October 29 from Deputy Police Chief Tomasz Michulka told provincial commanders to keep officers ready to deploy at once from November 2 to 8, TVN24 reported. The window runs seven days. The letter leaked, and online commentary linked it to the standoff around the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw.

Police rejected that link on October 30 and said the letter concerned the threat of sabotage and diversion. Boron wrote to officers on November 1 that police must be ready for destabilisation attempts by services from the East. Neither statement, as TVN24 reports them, named the Kaliningrad border. Boron first placed the operation there in the RMF FM interview on November 2.

Latvia passed border weapons powers the same day, after a ground incident

On October 29, the day of the Polish letter, Latvia's parliament adopted new border guard powers. Guards may now use weapons to defend border infrastructure, and fire without warning where a warning is not possible, per AirVeto's report on the law. It acted 24 days after masked, armed escorts pushed 20 migrants at Latvia's Belarus border on October 5 and threatened the soldiers who stopped them.

The two cases differ. Latvia legislated after armed men reached its border on the Belarus side. Poland mobilised on a warning of armed groups at the Kaliningrad frontier, and no crossing has been reported. AirVeto's archive also holds two Polish airspace incidents near that frontier this year, Bartoszyce and Braniewo.

None of the reports describes a drone, balloon or airspace violation

RMF24, TVN24, Rzeczpospolita and Interia all describe the threat as sabotage and armed groups crossing on the ground. None of them reports a drone, balloon or airspace violation tied to the operation, so AirVeto's wind layer has no object to trace. The Kaliningrad hub holds the frontier's context, and Reading the Suwalki Gap covers the stretch to the east.

AirVeto's live map shows the wind field along the frontier and logs any airspace incident there as it is reconstructed.