Analysis from the EU's eastern frontier.

Analysis and explainers on wind patterns, cross-border air tracking, and OSINT monitoring across the EU’s eastern frontier.

2026-07-16 · 3 min read
Lithuania receives SENTINEL radars from Latvia to expand NASAMS coverage
Latvia is transferring SENTINEL air-defence radars to Lithuania at US suggestion, extending the Baltic NASAMS network at no cost to Vilnius.
2026-07-14 · 4 min read
Dragoon Fury 26: Lithuania Drills Counter-Drone Defence at Kazlų Rūda
Lithuania's Dragoon Battalion began Dragoon Fury 26 at Kazlų Rūda on 13 July 2026, drilling counter-drone defence as Russian drones keep crossing its airspace.
2026-07-14 · 6 min read
The Iranian Drone Built in Russia That Keeps Landing in Poland
The Shahed-136 that crosses into Polish airspace is an Iranian design built in Russia. How the Alabuga supply chain puts the same drone over NATO's border.
2026-07-14 · 4 min read
Sky Fortress: The Acoustic Net Lithuania Is Deploying Against Drones
Sky Fortress is a Ukrainian network of cheap acoustic sensors that detects drones and cruise missiles by sound. Lithuania is fielding it from 2026.
2026-07-13 · 3 min read
Why Northern Lithuania Heard Explosions Today: NATO's July 13 Air Policing Drill
Lithuania's armed forces warned residents of sonic booms from a NATO fighter exercise on July 13, five days after Baltic Air Policing was upgraded to an air defence mission with new intercept authority.
2026-07-09 · 6 min read
21 Ships in 72 Hours: Ukraine Strikes Russia's Crimea Supply Line
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck 21 Russian shadow fleet vessels in 72 hours starting 6 July 2026 — then kept going. By 13 July the eight-day total reached 105 vessels, the Kerch Strait was suspended, and 50+ ships had fled to the Black Sea.
2026-07-06 · 5 min read
Ukraine's 2,500-km Strike on Omsk: When Critical Infrastructure Becomes a Target
Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest refinery in Siberia, demonstrating that no industrial facility—however remote—is beyond the reach of autonomous aerial warfare. This is economic strangulation at strategic depth.
2026-07-06 · 5 min read
Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Baltic Ports: Economic Sanctions by Range
On Lithuania's Statehood Day, Ukrainian long-range drone strikes hit Russian Leningrad ports. This is economic warfare, not military maturation, and it explains Russia's militarization of civilian infrastructure.
2026-07-03 · 4 min read
The Drone Campaign That's Emptying Russian Petrol Stations
Ukraine has struck over 50 Russian oil facilities since March. About a third of Russia's refining capacity is offline. Putin acknowledged queues at petrol stations last week.
2026-07-03 · 3 min read
Ukraine's Long-Range Sanctions Are in Effect. Russia Just Shut Its Train Links with the EU.
Zelenskyy calls Ukraine's refinery strikes 'long-range sanctions.' On 1 July, Russia closed seven rail crossings with Finland, Estonia and Latvia — no explanation given. The target zone explains it.
2026-07-01 · 4 min read
Russia Arms Civilian LNG Carrier: Direct Response to Drone Threat
Surveillance images show Russia installing machine guns on a Gazprom LNG carrier in the Baltic, signaling military escalation in response to proven Ukrainian drone capability.
2026-06-28 · 4 min read
U.S. Special Forces sank a ship in the Philippines. The drone was Ukrainian.
Uforce's Magura sank a decommissioned ship in the Philippines for U.S. Special Forces. The same system downed two Russian Su-30s and two Mi-8 helicopters over the Black Sea.
2026-06-27 · 4 min read
Lithuania ordered 936 Patria 6x6 vehicles. KOVO Armor will help build them.
Lithuania's State Defence Council announced procurement of 936 Patria 6x6s in May 2026. The MoU with KOVO Armor puts local production on the table.
2026-06-19 · 3 min read
Latvia Makes Drone and Balloon Smuggling a More Serious Crime
Latvia's Saeima passed Criminal Law amendments on 18 June making airborne devices an aggravating circumstance in smuggling offences. What it covers and why it took this long.
2026-06-19 · 3 min read
Ukraine Opens a Database of Captured Russian Weapons. The Drones We Track Are in It.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence launched TrophyLab on 19 June — a platform giving verified partners access to technical documentation on captured Russian weapons, including the drones AirVeto covers.
2026-06-18 · 4 min read
194 Drones Over Moscow
On 18 June, Ukrainian drones struck Moscow's Kapotnya refinery for the second time in a week. The largest drone raid on the Russian capital since the full-scale war began.
2026-06-16 · 6 min read
Baltic Air Policing: Who Scrambles, and When Do They Shoot?
How NATO's Baltic Air Policing works: the two bases, the rotation, and what it took to go from scramble to shoot-down in May and June 2026.
2026-06-15 · 7 min read
Why Ukrainian Drones Keep Ending Up in NATO Airspace
How Russian EW diverts Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace. Kouvola (March 2026) and Nautrēni (June 2026) as worked examples, with AirVeto wind layer context.
2026-06-15 · 5 min read
Gallant Boar 2026: NATO Exercises the Suwałki Corridor This Week
Lithuania, Poland, and France run joint drills in the Suwałki Corridor June 16–26. What the exercise covers, why the corridor still defines Baltic defence planning, and what the wind looks like over it this week.
2026-06-11 · 9 min read
Delta, Palantir, and SitaWare: battlefield management systems compared (Ukraine, USA, Lithuania, 2026)
Side-by-side comparison of the three battlefield management systems used by Ukraine, the US, and Lithuania, with where AirVeto's public wind layer fits.
2026-06-11 · 4 min read
Squall Over the Suwałki Gap: What 25 m/s Winds Mean for the Eastern Border
Lithuania's hydrometeorological service issued an orange warning for Vilnius, Utena, and Panevėžys counties on June 11, 2026. Wind gusts of 25 m/s are sweeping the exact border zones AirVeto monitors.
2026-06-09 · 4 min read
Polish F-35 Husarz Flyover - 'Powitanie z Polską' Over Kraków, Warsaw, Gdańsk
Poland's first F-35A Husarz jets overfly Kraków, Warsaw, and Gdańsk on 12 June 2026. The program, the pilots, and what it means for NATO's eastern flank.
2026-05-28 · 4 min read
Ukraine is launching strike drones from helium balloons. The wind at 8,000 metres sets the release window.
Ukraine is releasing Hornet AI strike drones from aerostats at 8,000 m to double effective range. The wind at that altitude sets the release window.
2026-05-20 · 6 min read
How not to report important data
A Lithuanian air-danger alert on 20 May 2026 shut an airport and emptied platforms while telling residents next to nothing. Three things it got wrong.
2026-04-24 · 5 min read
Three months of cross-border inflow
Five months of incident reconstructions along the EU's eastern frontier reveal three patterns that country-level weather services can't show.
2026-04-18 · 6 min read
Reading the Suwałki Gap
The Suwałki Gap is 65 km wide, flanked by Belarus and Kaliningrad. What its wind field looks like and which altitude layer predicts most incidents.

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