Reconstructing Baltic airspace events from wind data.
Timestamped reconstructions of airspace incidents across Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine — anchored to AirVeto wind data, linked to primary sources, embeddable by newsrooms.
Nautrēni drone, June 2026 — Latvia's first shoot-down
On 8 June 2026, NATO jets shot down a foreign drone over Nautrēni Parish, Rēzekne Municipality — the first confirmed aerial intercept of a drone entering Latvian airspace from abroad.
Vilnius airport closure, 8 June 2026 — 5 flights
Belarusian balloon markers closed Vilnius Airport from 01:18 to 04:00 EEST on 8 June 2026, disrupting five flights and 453 passengers; four aircraft were diverted, including two to Kaunas.
Constanta port, 5 June 2026 — Magura V5 sea drone
A Ukrainian Magura V5 unmanned surface vessel self-detonated at pier 77–78 in Romania's Port of Constanta on 5 June 2026 after Russian electronic warfare jamming caused it to lose navigation control during a Black Sea operation. Romania evacuated over 1,300 people from nearby beaches; no injuries were reported. Three other Ukrainian sea drones lost on the same day detonated offshore or at sea.
Estonia drone alerts, 2–3 June 2026 — six counties
Overnight drone alerts across six Estonian counties and Latvia's Alūksne municipality on the night of 2–3 June 2026 — NATO air policing scrambled; no drone was confirmed destroyed.
Galați drone strike, Romania, 29 May 2026
A Russian Geran-2 drone hit a 10-storey apartment block on Bulevardul Brăilei in Galați at 00:00 UTC on 29 May 2026, injuring two residents — the first Russian drone strike to injure civilians on NATO territory.
Dridža Lake drone, Latvia — radar-undetected crash, May 2026
An unidentified drone crashed into Dridža Lake in Krāslava Municipality, Latvia, on 23 May 2026 and exploded on impact; no injuries were reported, and no detection alert was issued beforehand.
Lithuania drone alert, 21 May 2026 — Utena district
Lithuania's second air-danger alert in two days — radar tracked two unidentified objects toward Utena on 21 May 2026; NATO fighters were scrambled but both signatures were lost and nothing was recovered.
Latvia Latgale alert, 21 May 2026 — Krāslava, Rēzekne
A drone air-threat alert covered Krāslava, Rēzekne, Ludza, and Augšdaugava on 21 May 2026; a drone was detected but not recovered, two days after the five-county shelter of 19 May.
Ignalina nuclear zone drone alert — Vilnius airport closed
An unidentified radar mark from Belarus triggered Lithuania's air-danger alert on 20 May 2026, closing Vilnius Airport and moving officials to shelter; lifted at 10:58 with no impact confirmed.
Latvia drone alert, 19 May 2026 — Latgale, Vidzeme shelter
A drone entering from the direction of Russia triggered shelter-in-place orders across Latgale and Vidzeme on 19 May 2026, suspending train services; the drone was assessed as likely Ukrainian, diverted by Russian EW.
Estonia drone shootdown, 19 May 2026 — first NATO intercept
On 19 May 2026, a Romanian NATO F-16 from the Baltic Air Policing detachment shot down an intruding drone near Kablaküla, Estonia — the first NATO fighter intercept of a drone over Baltic airspace.
Trakai contraband balloons — 19 May 2026
Two smuggling balloons carrying contraband cigarettes came down near a lake in Trakai district before dawn on 19 May 2026, a few houses from Seimas member Edita Rudelienė's home.
Samanė drone find, Lithuania — radar-undetected, 17 May 2026
A destroyed drone was found near Samanė village, Utena district, on 17 May 2026; Lithuanian radars had not detected it in flight, and preliminary markings suggested Ukrainian origin.
Helsinki airport closure, 15 May 2026 — first HEL shutdown
A drone alert closed Helsinki-Vantaa airport 04:00–07:19 EEST on 15 May 2026, triggering shelter-in-place for 1.8 million people; flights diverted to Stockholm Arlanda and Rovaniemi. No drone crossing into Finnish airspace was confirmed.
Vilnius airport closure, 13 May 2026 — ninth disruption
A Belarusian smuggling balloon closed Vilnius airport 02:16–03:16 EEST on 13 May 2026, affecting 128 passengers; one flight diverted to Copenhagen. LRT confirmed this as the ninth disruption of 2026.
Kaunas Šančiai contraband balloon — 13 May 2026
A balloon carrying ~9,000 cigarette packs landed in Šančiai, Kaunas, on 13 May 2026; the ICON wind field shows sustained southerly flow from the Hrodna (Grodno) oblast of Belarus.
Rēzekne / Viļāni Ukrainian drone strikes — 7 May 2026
Two drones struck the Rēzekne oil-storage facility in Latvia on 7 May 2026, damaging four fuel tanks and triggering the resignations of the defence minister and prime minister.
Galați Bariera Traian drone crash, Romania — Apr 2026
A Russian Geran-2 drone flew approximately 15 km over Romanian territory and crashed in the Bariera Traian district of northern Galați on 25 April 2026, damaging a farm outbuilding and an electricity pole but injuring no one. This is a distinct event from the 29 May 2026 Galați strike, in which a Geran-2 hit a 10-storey apartment block and injured two civilians.
Iitti drone crash, 11 April 2026 — fourth incursion
A Ukrainian drone with an unexploded warhead crashed in Perheniemi forest, Iitti, Kymenlaakso on 11 April 2026; Finnish EOD detonated the warhead at approximately 20:00 EEST. Finland's NBI opened two simultaneous criminal investigations.
Vilnius Airport closed by balloons — 9–10 April 2026
Vilnius Airport (EYVI) was closed for almost seven hours on 9–10 April 2026 after suspected smuggling balloons entered approach airspace from the Belarusian direction.
Parikkala lake drone crash, Finland — 31 March 2026
A Ukrainian Chaika drone with an unexploded warhead crashed on frozen Lake Pyhäjärvi near Parikkala on 31 March 2026, 2 km from the Russian border; the warhead was destroyed in a controlled detonation.
Estonia drone alert, 30–31 March 2026 — EE-ALARM
Estonian authorities issued EE-ALARM alerts across seven counties overnight on 30–31 March 2026 after the Estonian Defence Forces reported potential drone sightings over eastern and southern Estonia. A Finnair Helsinki-Tartu flight turned back over central Estonia; the alert was declared over by 06:00 local time on 31 March.
Kouvola drone crash, 29 March 2026 — Finland Chaika
Two Ukrainian drones crashed in southeastern Finland on the morning of 29 March 2026 — one north of Kouvola carrying an unexploded warhead, one near Luumäki. Finnish authorities destroyed the warhead in a controlled detonation that evening. Finland's NBI later confirmed the drones were Chaika decoys, not AN-196s as initially reported. Russian electronic warfare jamming from the Leningrad region diverted them from a Ukrainian attack on the Ust-Luga oil terminal.
Parcheș drone crash, Romania — 26 March 2026
A Russian Geran/Shahed attack drone crashed approximately 2 km from the village of Parcheș in northern Tulcea County at 00:44 local time (22:44 UTC) on 26 March 2026, after penetrating roughly 4 km into Romanian territory. No casualties or infrastructure damage were recorded.
Auvere power station drone strike, Estonia — 25 Mar 2026
A Ukrainian military drone entered Estonia from Russia and struck the chimney of the Auvere power station in Ida-Viru County in the early hours of 25 March 2026. Energy transmission was unaffected and no one was hurt; prosecutors confirmed the drone was not aimed at Estonia.
Krāslava drone crash, Latvia — 25 March 2026
A Ukrainian military drone crossed into Latvia from Russia and detonated near Dobročina village in the Krāslava municipality in the early hours of 25 March 2026. Latvian radar and acoustic sensors tracked it; the Air Force confirmed Ukrainian origin from the wreckage.
Varėna drone crash, Lithuania — 23 March 2026
A Ukrainian military drone crashed and exploded near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania's Varėna district in the early hours of 23 March 2026. Military radar did not detect it; the Prime Minister later confirmed Ukrainian origin and attributed the deviation to Russian electronic warfare.
Vilnius Airport closed by balloons — 22–23 March 2026
Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations on the night of 22–23 March 2026 after radar detected contraband balloon signatures from the Belarusian direction. This was the fourth balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026 and came the night before a Ukrainian stray drone crashed near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania's Varėna district.
Vilnius Airport closed by balloons — 15–16 March 2026
Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations for approximately 110 minutes overnight on 15–16 March 2026 after radar detected navigational markers consistent with contraband weather balloons entering approach airspace from the Belarusian direction. This was the third balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026.
Sfântu Gheorghe drone incursion, Romania — 25 Feb 2026
A Russian Shahed/Geran-type attack drone entered Romanian airspace near Sfântu Gheorghe in the Danube Delta on the evening of 25 February 2026, crossed northern Tulcea County, and exited over Black Sea territorial waters near Sulina without dropping debris on land. Two Romanian F-16s scrambled from Fetești Air Base; no injuries or infrastructure damage were recorded.
Vilnius Airport closed by balloons — 17 February 2026
Vilnius Airport (EYVI) suspended operations for approximately 75 minutes on the evening of 17 February 2026 after the Lithuanian Crisis Management Centre notified the airport of weather balloons posing a risk to aviation from the Belarusian direction. Finnair cancelled its evening services to Vilnius during the restriction window. This was the second documented balloon-related closure of Vilnius Airport in 2026.
Vilnius airport closure, Jan–Feb 2026 — 700 pax
A Belarusian smuggling balloon closed Vilnius airport in early 2026, affecting ~700 passengers; three flights diverted to Riga, two to Kaunas. Exact date uncertain — likely late January 2026.
Druskininkai balloons — 7 intercepted, 6 Feb 2026
Seven balloons were intercepted and two individuals arrested in the Druskininkai area on 6 February 2026 — a daily record for Lithuania in 2026.
Šventoji twin-balloon east-to-west crossing — 31 Jan 2026
A twin-envelope balloon crossed Lithuania east to west at 1–3 km altitude on 31 January 2026, arriving over Šventoji on the Baltic coast at around 09:00 local time.
Vilnius Airport balloons — 28 Jan 2026, 8 intercepted
Eight balloons entered Lithuanian airspace near Vilnius Airport at 03:00 UTC on 28 January 2026; four suspects were arrested. AirVeto's 7 km wind log shows ~71 km/h southerly flow from Belarus.
Przasnysz drone, 28 January 2026
An unknown drone crashed approximately 70 metres from Poland's 2nd Radio-Electronic Centre at Przasnysz on 28 January 2026; no intercept means were deployed at the time. Military police opened an investigation; origin undetermined.
Belarus balloons, Podlaskie, Jan 2026 — airspace closed
Polish military radar detected Belarusian smuggling balloons crossing into Podlaskie on the night of 21 January 2026; Poland summoned the Belarusian chargé d'affaires on 22 January. Three consecutive nights of crossings on 31 January–2 February triggered emergency NOTAMs; five smugglers were arrested on 5 February 2026.
Tănăsoaia drone, 18 January 2026
Drone fragments were found in Tănăsoaia, Vrancea County on 18 January 2026 — the first confirmed drone find in Vrancea, adding a new county to Romania's airspace-violation record.
Poland hybrid probe, 25 December 2025
Polish jets intercepted a Russian IL-20M ELINT aircraft over the Baltic on 25 December 2025 while Belarusian balloons simultaneously crossed Podlaskie — analysts characterised the two events as a coordinated hybrid probe of NATO's eastern-flank defences.
Białystok balloons from Belarus — 24 Dec 2025
On 24 December 2025, AirVeto's model flagged a Belarus→Poland crossing corridor; Polish authorities overnight recovered four smuggling balloons — the first documented AirVeto prediction match.
Puiești drone crash, 25 November 2025
A Gerbera-type Russian drone crashed 100+ km inland near Puiești, Vaslui County on 25 November 2025, found by a resident behind their house; no warhead, first confirmed daylight breach in Romania.
Latvia balloon smuggling, 24 November 2025
NBS radar tracked seven to eight Belarusian smuggling balloons crossing into Latgale on the night of 23–24 November 2025 — Latvia's first documented balloon-smuggling event, carrying more than 720,000 cigarettes.
Tulcea-Galați drone, 19 November 2025
A drone penetrated 8 km into Romanian NATO airspace near Tulcea-Galați on 19 November 2025; two Romanian F-16s and two German Eurofighters were scrambled. Origin uncertain, no wreckage recovered.
Grindu drone crash, 10 November 2025
A drone crashed near Grindu, Tulcea County on 10 November 2025; weather grounded Romanian F-16s and the jets were not scrambled. RO-Alert issued at 00:07, debris confirmed at the site.
Warsaw drone, 15 September 2025
A drone was neutralised over the Belweder Palace district in Warsaw at 17:00 UTC on 15 September 2025; a Belarusian woman and a Ukrainian man were detained and charged under the Aviation Act. ABW found no foreign intelligence link.
Chilia Veche drone, 13 September 2025
A Russian drone entered Romanian NATO airspace near Chilia Veche on 13 September 2025, loitered for 50 minutes, and returned to Ukraine; four NATO jets were scrambled but the drone was not intercepted.
Wyryki-Wola missile impact, 9 Sep 2025 — Poland drone raid
During Russia's 9–10 September 2025 mass drone incursion into Poland — 19–23 decoy drones, the first NATO shots since the full-scale invasion began — a Polish F-16's AIM-120 AMRAAM suffered a guidance failure and struck a residential building in Wyryki-Wola, Włodawa County. The 150 kg missile did not detonate. It was the first time in the war that a NATO air-defence missile caused structural damage inside a NATO state.
Gerbera drone at Gałczyce mine, March 2026 — Poland
On 12 March 2026, a lignite mine employee at Gałczyce, Konin County, reported a drone wreck on the mine grounds. Police from Konin and Poznań confirmed a Russian Gerbera decoy — assessed as having entered Poland six months earlier during the 9–10 September 2025 mass drone incursion and gone undetected until the find.
Gerbera drone crash, Majdan Sielec, 6 Sep 2025 — Poland
A Russian Gerbera decoy drone was found in a field near Majdan Sielec, Tomaszów Lubelski County, on 6 September 2025 — roughly 50 km from the Ukrainian border. Pre-flight markings dated 2 September and the Cyrillic label 'БГ' (combat-ready) confirmed Russian origin. Polish officials initially claimed it had 'no military characteristics'; TVN24 photographs proved otherwise.
Osiny Shahed crash, 20 August 2025 — 2.5h undetected
A Russian Shahed drone with a Chinese MD550 engine crashed at approximately 02:00 CEST on 20 August 2025 in Osiny, Łuków County; the drone flew over Polish territory for 2.5 hours undetected before crashing.