Partly occupied Moldova now overflown by Russian drones

Moldova's foreign ministry counted eight airspace violations in the seven days to October 1, and on October 3 five missiles and drones exploded on Moldovan ground. Six of the seven drone and missile sites in AirVeto's 2026 Moldova archive lie within 75 km of Tiraspol, the Transnistrian capital, but only three within 75 km of Chișinău.

The flights land on the eastern flank, the side that faces Odesa. Russia has held troops there since 1992, up to about 1,500 of them today.

The barrage reached Moldova eight times in seven days

Moldova's foreign ministry said on October 1 that the country's airspace had been violated eight times in the previous seven days. Two of the three drones of September 30 exploded in Orhei and Anenii Noi districts. On October 3, the defence ministry counted six unauthorised flights, and five exploded on the ground.

Defence Minister Anatolie Nosatîi said on September 9 that Moldova had recorded about 70 incidents tied to the war in Ukraine. He added that not all of them can be written off as accidental spillover, because "Russia is trying to send messages". He did not rule out deaths.

Five of AirVeto's seven 2026 Moldova pages fall in the 16 days from September 17 to October 3: Tudora, Colonița, Cernița, Brănești and Crocmaz.

Six of seven sites are within 75 km of Tiraspol, three within 75 km of Chișinău

By AirVeto's measurement, the straight-line distance from each site's marker to Tiraspol's centre, and then to Chișinău's, is:

• Copanca (Kopanka), July 12: 13.4 km and 66.2 km
• Crocmaz, October 3: 51.7 km and 105.9 km
• Colonița, September 18: 54.7 km and 7.7 km
• Tudora, September 17: 55.7 km and 110.4 km
• Palanca, August 26: 60.1 km and 115.1 km
• Brănești, September 30: 73.5 km and 33.1 km
• Cernița, September 24: 152.3 km and 110.4 km

Six sites fall within 75 km of Tiraspol. Three fall within 75 km of Chișinău: Copanca, Colonița and Brănești. The markers are village centres and the distances are great-circle, so they are approximate.

Tiraspol sits on Moldova's eastern edge, so the cluster mostly traces the border with Ukraine's Odesa region. The ministry's sixth flight on October 3 entered from the direction of Udobnoe, in Odesa Oblast, toward Palanca. The table covers AirVeto's seven pages, a subset of the roughly 70 incidents the defence minister counts.

Moldovan officials call it a violation of sovereignty and a war next door

The defence ministry's releases speak of unauthorised flights. The foreign ministry called the incidents a grave violation of Moldova's sovereignty and asked Russia to stop its strikes on Ukraine at once.

Sandu said on October 3 that Russia's war "is dangerously reaching Moldova". Prime Minister Vasile Tofan told the UN General Assembly on September 26 that Moldova could not prevent the war beginning next door and that "repetition does not make violation acceptable". After a drone exploded at Crocmaz on August 9, he said that being outside the war zone does not protect Moldova.

Nosatîi named Russia the main threat to Moldova's military security and said it "continues to be an aggressor". Moldova struggles to keep pace with the drones, he said. Security expert Andrei Curăraru put the country's response at short range only.

Part of Moldova has been held by Russian troops since 1992

Moldova's 1994 constitution proclaims the country's permanent neutrality. It adds that Moldova shall not allow the dispersal of foreign military troops on its territory, in the English translation published by Constitute Project. Only a referendum can revise the neutrality provisions.

Transnistria is a strip along Moldova's border with Ukraine held by pro-Russian separatists. The Kyiv Independent describes it as under Russian occupation since 1992. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that about 1,000 to 1,500 Russian troops are stationed there, and The Conversation gives about 1,500.

Chișinău has repeatedly called for the peaceful reintegration of the region and the withdrawal of Russian forces, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Moscow added to its Transnistria position in 2026

On April 8, Pavlo Palisa, a senior Ukrainian presidential official, said Russia plans a buffer zone inside Transnistria along the Vinnytsia border. He called it the first time such plans had been documented on the Russian side, and said he doubted Russia had the forces to carry them out.

In May, Russia changed its rules. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 15 that eases Russian citizenship for Transnistria's residents. On May 20 the Federation Council finalised a law that lets the Kremlin use the military abroad to protect Russian nationals facing courts Moscow does not recognise. Moldova's President Maia Sandu called the passport policy a hidden mobilisation and a pressure tool, UNITED24 reported.

The aim is older than 2026. In April 2022, Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia's Central Military District, said taking southern Ukraine would give Moscow "another way out to Transnistria", the Washington Post reported. In 2025, a map behind General Valery Gerasimov showed Odesa and Mykolaiv on Russia's side of the line. The Conversation read that as a land route to Transnistria.

This analysis is based on the Moldovan government's statements, Moldovan, Ukrainian and international reporting, and AirVeto's archive. How AirVeto's reconstructions are built is on the methodology page.