Writing & analysis
Blog.
Analysis and explainers on wind patterns, cross-border air tracking, and OSINT monitoring across the EU’s eastern frontier.
Three months of cross-border inflow: what the AirVeto incident archive shows about the Baltic balloon season
From the Christmas Eve 2025 Białystok prediction match to the 9–10 April 2026 Vilnius closure — patterns that emerge when you reconstruct individual airspace incidents from observed wind data.
Reading the Suwałki Gap: how wind direction shapes cross-border drift
The 65-kilometre corridor between Poland and Lithuania sits between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Here's how to interpret the wind field there, and what it does and doesn't tell you about cross-border air movement.