Analysis from the EU's eastern frontier.
Analysis and explainers on wind patterns, cross-border air tracking, and OSINT monitoring across the EU’s eastern frontier.
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Polish F-35 Husarz Flyover — 'Powitanie z Polską' Over Kraków, Warsaw, Gdańsk
On June 12, 2026, Poland's three newest F-35A fighters will perform a low-altitude flyover of Poland's three largest cities, marking the acceptance ceremony of NATO's first 5th-generation jets on the eastern flank.
Ukraine is launching strike drones from helium balloons. The wind at 8,000 metres sets the release window.
Ukraine's Hornet AI drone program has started using aerostats to double its effective strike range — releasing the drone from 8,000 m altitude before it glides toward the target. The critical scheduling variable is the upper-air wind field.
How not to report important data
A Lithuanian air-danger alert on 20 May 2026 shut an airport and emptied train platforms while telling residents almost nothing — no threat type, no location, no confidence. A short case study in what stripping the specifics out of urgent data costs, and how to avoid it.
Three months of cross-border inflow
From the Christmas Eve 2025 Białystok prediction match to the 9–10 April 2026 Vilnius closure — patterns that emerge when you reconstruct individual airspace incidents from observed wind data.
Reading the Suwałki Gap
The 65-kilometre strip between Suwałki and Marijampolė is the EU's only land connection to the Baltic states — flanked by Belarus to the east and Kaliningrad to the west. Here is what its wind field tends to look like, why most incursion incidents happen around it rather than in it, and how to read inflow segments along the gap in AirVeto.