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NATO air policingSuwałki corridorMilitary aviationElectronic warfareBaltic defence
Articles (68)
- Incident · 2026-05-13
Balloon closes Vilnius airport for ninth time — 128 passengers affected
A Belarusian smuggling balloon closed Vilnius airport 02:16–03:16 EEST on 13 May 2026, affecting 128 passengers; one flight diverted to Copenhagen. LRT confirmed this as the ninth disruption of 2026. - Incident · 2026-05-13
Belarus balloon carries 9,000 cigarettes into Kaunas, Lithuania
A balloon carrying ~9,000 cigarette packs landed in Šančiai, Kaunas, on 13 May 2026; the ICON wind field shows sustained southerly flow from the Hrodna (Grodno) oblast of Belarus. - Incident · 2026-05-07
Drones strike Rēzekne oil depot, trigger Latvia political crisis
Two drones struck the Rēzekne oil-storage facility in Latvia on 7 May 2026, damaging four fuel tanks and triggering the resignations of the defence minister and prime minister. - Incident · 2026-04-25
Ukrainian drone crashes in residential Galați, Romania
A Russian Geran-2 drone flew approximately 15 km over Romanian territory and crashed in the Bariera Traian district of northern Galați on 25 April 2026, damaging a farm outbuilding and an electricity pole but injuring no one. This is a distinct event from the 29 May 2026 Galați strike, in which a Geran-2 hit a 10-storey apartment block and injured two civilians. - Analysis · 2026-04-24
Three months of cross-border inflow
Five months of incident reconstructions along the EU's eastern frontier reveal three patterns that country-level weather services can't show. - Analysis · 2026-04-18
Reading the Suwałki Gap
The Suwałki Gap is 65 km wide, flanked by Belarus and Kaliningrad. What its wind field looks like and which altitude layer predicts most incidents.
Glossary (20)
- Drone
Shahed-136
Iranian-designed one-way attack drone, mass-produced by Russia as the Geran-2; the loitering munition most frequently detected crossing into EU airspace. - Drone
Gerbera
Russian fixed-wing decoy drone that mimics the Shahed-136 profile to overload Ukrainian air defence, increasingly fitted with warheads for direct strikes. - Drone
Chaika
Ukrainian fixed-wing decoy drone easily mistaken in flight for the larger AN-196 Liutyi; a March 2026 Finland incident required a public correction. - Drone
Loitering munition
Umbrella term for a guided drone built to loiter over or fly toward a target before diving in and detonating; slower and more wind-affected than a missile. - Drone
Magura V5
Ukrainian unmanned strike boat operated by military intelligence against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, credited with over 17 warships sunk or damaged since 2023. - Drone
Hornet
US-built, AI-enabled one-way strike drone used by Ukraine against Russian logistics routes linking Russia to occupied Crimea. Not confirmed in any EU border incident. - Drone
Lancet
Russian tactical loitering munition used against Ukrainian artillery and armour near the front line; not confirmed in EU airspace. - Drone
Orlan-10
Russian reconnaissance and electronic-warfare drone used for artillery spotting inside Ukraine; almost entirely absent from EU airspace incidents. - Drone
DART
Ukrainian glide munition launched from stratospheric balloons, designed to defeat jamming by shutting off navigation before impact. - Drone
Italmas
Russian long-range loitering munition, built by Lancet-maker ZALA Aero, flown in mixed raids alongside Shahed and Gerbera drones since 2023. - Drone
AN-196 Liutyi
Ukraine's long-range strike drone built to answer the Shahed-136; the airframe Chaika is frequently mistaken for in EU airspace incidents. - Drone
Sea Baby
Ukrainian heavy naval strike drone operated by the SBU; struck the Kerch Bridge twice and now carries rocket and machine-gun variants. - Ground robot
GOBLIN
Polish unmanned ground vehicle for reconnaissance and casualty evacuation, tested defending the Suwałki Gap during NATO's Gallant Boar 2026 exercise. - Ground robot
GNOM
Polish ground-launched loitering munition, GOBLIN's smaller sibling, tested for kinetic strikes on armour during 2025 and 2026 NATO exercises. - System
Patria 6x6
Finnish 6x6 armoured personnel carrier and the base platform for NATO's multinational CAVS programme; Lithuania announced plans to procure 936 units in May 2026. - Electronic warfare
GPS spoofing
Technique that broadcasts counterfeit satellite signals to make a receiver report a false position; documented against tankers in the Gulf of Finland. - Electronic warfare
GNSS jamming
Technique that overpowers satellite-navigation frequencies with noise, denying any position fix; persistent over the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad. - Electronic warfare
Datalink override
Suspected technique for hijacking a drone's command or navigation link mid-flight; the Baltic incidents linked to it show broad electronic-warfare diversion, not confirmed link takeover. - Electronic warfare
Tobol
Russian stationary electronic-warfare complex in Kaliningrad, repeatedly identified as a source of GPS jamming across the Baltic and Poland. - System
Baltic Sentry
NATO's ongoing maritime mission to protect Baltic Sea undersea cables and pipelines, launched after suspected sabotage of a Finland-Estonia power link.
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