See where the wind is carrying things — right now.
Contraband balloons drift where the wind takes them. Drones cross where the border is softest. This map shows both — and every past incident matched to the conditions that carried it.
Recent cross-border balloon and aircraft incidents.
Every reported incursion since December 2025 — launch coordinates, the wind field at the time, drift trajectory, landing point. Source-linked. Each entry is its own page; deep-link any timestamp to the live map at the event location.
Tarnawa-Kolonia missile, 30 July 2026
A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crossed into Poland on 30 July 2026, impacting farmland in Lublin Voivodeship and leaving a 10-metre crater approximately 90 km inside NATO territory.
Romania Danube Delta drone series July 2026, four airspace incursions
Romanian F-16s shot down three drones over the Danube Delta on 24–26 July 2026. A fourth entered east of Sulina on 27 July and flew to Ukraine without intercept.
Kaliningrad cigarette balloons, July 2026
Russia's Federal Customs Service intercepted two suspects in Kaliningrad on 27 July 2026 before they could launch weather balloons carrying 6,500 packs of cigarettes to Lithuania.Our focus regions.
Coverage is concentrated along the EU’s eastern edge — the land and sea boundaries between member states and Russia or Belarus.
EU–Belarus land border
Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia share over 1,200 km of EU-external border with Belarus. Wind at six altitudes from Białowieża to the Latvian frontier.Suwałki Gap
The 65-km land bridge between Kaliningrad and Belarus — the narrowest link between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO.Kaliningrad
The Russian exclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania — the closest point of Russian-controlled territory to the Suwałki Gap, 20 km east.Vilnius International Airport
Lithuania's main airport, 30 km from the Belarusian border — closed more than ten times by balloon incursions since October 2025.Gulf of Finland
Baltic arm between Estonia and Finland, closed to the east by Russia — dense AIS traffic, GPS-spoofing reports, and stray drone intercepts.Baltic states–Russia border
Estonia's Narva line, Lake Peipus, and Latvia's eastern frontier — the EU's direct land boundary with Russia. AIS tracking covers the Baltic Sea approaches.Latest briefs.
From balloon incursions over Polish airspace to drone events near Vilnius and Suwalki Gap overflights — reconstructed from ADS-B tracks, wind models, and open-source evidence. For OSINT analysts and defence journalists covering Baltic security.
